How Hiv Aids Affect The Mining Industry Commerce Essay

How Hiv Aids Affect The Mining Industry Commerce Essay The purpose of this paper is to examine the affects that HIV/AIDS can have on the mining industry in South Africa. I aim to look at how does HIV/AIDS affects to the mining industry. My goal is to show that HIV/AIDS has its direct and indirect impact on the business and that it plays a major role in the business environment today. I looked at individual mine companies, one that I focussed on throughout the paper was Anglo American, I also looked at the bigger picture and researched on how it would affect the country and the mining industry. The first phase of this project was to look at how HIV/AIDS affects the labour supply, and how it affects your profitability, than I moved onto more indirect affect which were what other impacts it has and then finally its impact on the economy. I found out that most of South Africas mine workers are HIV positive and this has a negative effect on the industry as they experience high expenditure due to providing health care, benefits and training and that the mining industry is experiencing a decline in revenue as efficiency and productivity is reduced due to workers being ill and weak. This paper shows that the education and support of the workers is vital to prevent the HIV/AIDS rate from increasing and threatening their workforce. If companies have strong policies in place they could lessen the impact HIV/AIDS has on their company. Word count: 244 Contents Page Introduction For a company to be successful they must demonstrate a competitive advantage, for African companies, most of them already have a competitive advantage as there is a profuse supply of inexpensive, and productive labour. Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome most commonly know to us as HIV and AIDS are one of the main causes of deaths in Africa. The percentage of infected people has steadily increased throughout the years and this infection rate does not seem to be stopping. The infection rate of South Africans is approximately 28% of the people that go into the clinics  [1]  . This statistic is not including the whole population so the total percentage of South Africans is unknown to us. I decided to focus on the Mining Industry in South Africa has it has recently had a spotlight shone upon it from having a high HIV workforce, to unemployed workers going into abandoned mines in the hope of generating an income for their family. There is an abundance of mining companies in South Africa, it holds nearly 90% of the platinum metals of the Earth, 80% of the Manganese 73% of the Chrome, 45% of the Vanadium, and 41% of the Earths Gold.  [2]  Miners are usually migrant workers who are away from their family. They are housed in same-sex hostels. These miners are often visit prostitutes to escape from their tough jobs. These visits to prostitutes make the mine workers vulnerable to HIV. I shall be concentrating for the purpose of this essay mainly the effect of the financial, economical and motivational effect HIV has on the workplace. By only focusing on one industry it helps me narrow done the research area and therefore I can focus much more deeply into each of the factors I shall be exploring in this essay. I will respond to my research question How does HIV/AIDS Affect the Mining Industry? by looking at the specific components that may be affected and see how these components are affected or how some components are not affected at all. Why I choose this topic I choose this topic as it is something that is relevant to me. I am living in South Africa and am confronted every day with new articles, new figures about HIV/AIDS. This interested me and I began to think about what impact this has to a business, I was interested to know more, know the deeper consequences and benefits that this HIV epidemic has on and business, on an industry. I then decided that choosing the mining industry would be great, there is this highlight on the mining industry and it is also an industry that requires you to have a strong workforce that can take the severe conditions. With these two very prominent things in South Africa, I can up with my research question. How is the Labour Supply Affected For a business to be successful they would need a constant supply of trained workers that are capable to do the job to the best of their ability. Companies that require a workforce that is fully trained, they seem HIV as a problem. It requires a huge amount of time to train a new employee and the costs to the company are great to so this. The highest prevalence of HIV is for the age group of 30-34 years of age, with the age groups 25-29 and 35-39 not too far behind  [3]  . These age groups are the groups that are entering the workforce or are already working. This is not a good thing for a business as this suggests that their workforce and their future supply of workforce are most likely going to be affected by HIV. The mining sector is very labour intensive, mechanisation is difficult in mining which results in mining having to have a big labour force. Most mine workers tend to be young males, which is the main age category that has been affected by HIV. These young males have to engage in physically demanding and dangerous work for up to 12 hours a day in hot, dusty conditions and are breaks are not very frequent, theses workers need to be physically capable and up to full health to cope with this. Workers living with HIV may find these working conditions straining and they physically do not have the strength to cope in these difficult conditions. Mines require a work force of semi-skilled workers and also require highly-skilled workers such as geologists and engineers, of one of these highly skilled workers were to be affected or be lost to the illness, their departure could disrupt operations greatly until a replacement is found for them. HIV also has an impact on the labour force of mining by having an increase in mortality, for example around 60% of the mining workforce is aged between 30 and 44 years; in 15 years this is predicted to fall to 10%  [4]  . This shows that the labour force for mining is being affected due to deaths related to AIDS. How Profitability is Affected HIV can affect a company is possibly to ways; to either increase its expenditures or it can decrease revenues. In the early stages of the HIV a company may experience the worker having an unexplained increase in absenteeism and the said worker and his or her family may have and increase in their health care costs. Some companies may choose to reimburse the worker for these costs or pay for a percentage of them. The productivity of the worker may decrease especially when infections that are well known to effect HIV positive people start to attack the body such as tuberculosis. With that said, the companies may observe an increase in diseases within their workforce as the contagious diseases are spread between the workforce. This would lead to workers having to take off more sick days and an increase in health care costs. Employees that have been identified as HIV positive may be kept on working in the same position, moved to a less demanding position or might even be fired, this all depends on the companys policy to HIV positive workers. A loss of revenue is due to workers having to take leave due to illness or having to take leave due to family members being HIV positive or needing to attend a funeral. For example in north central Namibia it has been estimated that extension staff spend at least 10 percent of their time attending funerals.  [5]  Productivity is also affected as workers in poor health are no longer able to produce at the same levels to when they were good health. Approximately 45% of South Africas mineworkers are HIV positive; this has already decreased productivity in mines by 15%.  [6]  This means that in the years to come mines would have to employ more workers, to keep up with the productivity level that they usually operate at to keep up their output levels. The extent to employees living with HIV being kept on at a company depends on the type of work they do and the companies policy that are in place regarding this. For some companies the government or trade unions require that they supply benefit to HIV positive workers but some companies are able to not do this, and therefore the government of the workers family are made to provide the benefits. There are a number of ways in which a companys expenditures may increase due to having employees suffering from HIV. They could experience an increase in health care costs, which indicates that the company is being affected by HIV epidemic. Companies that have invested in private health insurance policies could have an increase in their premiums. Companies that have in-house health services such as clinics may have an increase in the need for their services. According to the Chairman of Gold Fields, Christopher Thompson the HIV epidemic will cause the production of gold to increase by R100 per ounce in the next six years.  [7]  Anglo American has made anti-retroviral therapy available to all of their employees that are HIV positive at the companys expense. This decision could greatly increase costs to the company and affect the profitability of the company. As more workers die of AIDS, businesses can have an increase in costs in terms of death benefits. Larger companies often offer death benefits to the family of the deceased worker. With the increase in HIV related deaths companies have increased a big increase in costs and have had to find ways lessen the impact of these benefit costs. Some companies have lessened their financial contribution to the funeral, and some have required that funerals are only to take place on the weekend, to minimize the amount of time taken off of work. With such a high infection rate in mine workers together with the related incidence of illness and death means that mines loose between 5% and 10% of their workforce each year.  [8]   The cost of recruiting and training new employees may be high. The cost of replacing an unskilled worker is usually very same, and these types of workers can usually be replaced within a week and the cost of replacing them is very small, especially when the area the company is located experiences a very high unemployment rate. But many companies require skilled experienced employees, these are much harder to recruit. Most of Africa has a shortage of skilled labour which makes recruiting a suitable an appropriate candidate very difficult and positions can be left unfilled for weeks or even months. The training of the unskilled workers often doesnt cost the company much, can be done in-house and only takes a couple of days. However training of the skilled workers such as director of financing, marketing is of a much higher cost to the company, they usually get trained outside of the company, and many go overseas for the training. One company says they face costs of $100  000 to recru it and train a replacement for the managing director role.  [9]  It is estimated that in South Africa that every 100 natural deaths that occur in a year 88 are highly skilled workers and 176 skilled workers will die of AIDS in the same year, it is also estimated that in the same year 308 semi-skilled and unskilled workers will die of AIDS.  [10]   What Other Impacts Occur Another impact that HIV/AIDS has on a company is that is can lower the morale of its employees, employees may feel de-motivated and not willing to work as efficiently. They see their colleagues and friends at work die before their eyes and they soon start to have a negative, defeatist attitude towards their work as they see themselves in the same position as the deceased one. One indirect effect of all the leave that has been taken by employees is that the healthy workers have to work harder than usual to make up for the people on sick leave. In many companies workers are said to be working extra hours to make up for the time lost by the sick colleagues, however these healthy employees usually do not get paid over time and often feel overworked and exhausted. This could then reduce the quantity and quality of the final product as employees are stressed and de-motivated. The spread of HIV could lead to poor work relationships, they may not feel they are being supported by their company and their colleagues, that there are not enough care and prevention methods in place. Some workers may demand that employees that have been infected should be dismissed when they learn about their status. There often a negative attitude and behavioural responses towards an HIV positive person when other workers learn the status of that person. A way for managers to address the indirect effects HIV has on their company is to generate a workplace policy that addresses the needs of an HIV positive person; this policy promotes healthy relationships between all workers and levels of the hierarchy. Anglo American is one of the mining companies that is leading in the fight against HIV/AIDS, they have community outreach and strong policies to go on, Cynthia Carroll, Chief Executive of Anglo American said: Anglo Americans aim, as the Employer and Partner of Choice, is to effectively manage the impact of HIV/AIDS on our employees and to make a positive contribution towards minimising the social, economic and developmental consequences of this epidemic. Anglo Americans response reaches beyond its workforce, through community outreach HIV/AIDS programmes, to spread the application of good practice in a way which helps to strengthen community health systems.  [11]  By having strong aims like this the company is able to address some of the indirect effects that HIV has on their company and helps strengthen the moral of the workers as they feel like they are being taken care of and that they are an assets to the company. The Anglo American policy towards HIV/AIDS focuses on the some main things such as: Confidentiality- the employee who has HIV has the right to confidentiality and privacy. They are under no obligation to tell management about their HIV status. Non- Discrimination- Anglo American does not tolerate unfair discrimination towards a person with HIV and take all the steps to respects their dignity and ensure human rights. All employees that are part of the company, who know (or think they know) a workers HIV status are told of the requirements and responsibilities of disclosing this information to a third party, and the consequences that could happen if they were to do this. Gender equality- Anglo American aims towards having equal gender relations. They recognise that the empowerment of women is vital to successfully prevent the spread of HIV infection and enable women to cope with HIV/AIDS. Social Dialogue- Anglo American aims to build partnerships and alliances with their stakeholders so that they can develop a common vision and shared strategy with them. This policy they have is constantly updated with the ever changing environment that we live in. This strong policy as said before strengthens the employee relations as the company is seen to care for their employees and cares about their well being. Another effect HIV/AIDS can have on a business is that it can cause a decline in some products. Products known as luxury products could no longer be bought as much as previously, this is because with the employee getting sicker with HIV they no longer bring in that much income as previously, they are also experiencing an increase in their medical costs. This leaves them with no having enough money to buy those nonessential goods. This could not necessarily affect the mining industry, but it does affect their workers and their families. It means that they can no longer buy as many good as they previously could have. It also affects the businesses where the mine workers buy their goods from as they are no longer getting as much business from them as they would have before the worker had been infected. How HIV/AIDS is Affecting South African Economies HIV/AIDS can not only affect a company, but it can also affect the economy. This could lead to people not wanting to invest in the country as they are seen to have a declining economy. The decline in the economy impacts two things: investment and trade. The investment is impacted by the uncertainty over the impact of HIV/AIDS causes reluctance from the investor. Investors are not sure how the ever growing HIV epidemic is going to affect the business and they start to become reluctant to invest as they are not sure if the company will succeed or not. Another thing is there had been a decrease in the amount and variety of entrepreneurs; people are not going out as much and starting their own company, this means that there is not as many projects to be invested in as there is not the variety and range that investors want in that country, so they then move to the next country looking for the next best thing to invest in. Also the general economic picture is impacting on investment; some countries do not seem to be doing well and seem unstable this therefore would not be a wise country to invest in as the country could fall at any moment, think Zimbabwe, all people who invested in Zimbabwe mustve lost tonnes of money due to the country falling economically. This could affect the mining industry greatly, if no one is willing to invest in them then they lose vital financing. Mines are the ones being hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS epidemic; investors are able to see this and predict the high labour turnover rate and the overall costs and losses the company experiences due to this. Investors would then be discouraged to invest in the company as the percentage of staff with HIV would only increase. They would also see the general economic picture of South Africa, and with the recession they could see that overall investing in mines in South Africa as an unwise decision due to all the factors. The trade in South Africa is impacted by the reduced production due to increased costs. With HIV epidemic growing companies are having greater costs than they have had in the past, they have to deal with factors like death benefits, providing health care and anti retroviral therapy and the recruitment and training of staff, this means that there is not as money available to buy the raw materials or employ as many staff as they have before, which leads to there being a decrease in the production levels. Another thing that impacts the trade is the decrease in workers with experience in the export markets. Skilled labour is much harder to recruit than unskilled labour positions can be left empty for ages. This means that it is difficult to find labour that has experience in export markets due to there being a lack of qualified labour. For the mining industry this means that its trade is being impacted by HIV, they are experiencing an increase in their costs due to all the factors above and because the work is demanding, they are also experiencing a decrease in efficiency which leads to the company not producing as much. They also loose lots of workers due to the demanding work and often have positions left unfilled as they cannot find someone with the right experience. There has been much debate on whether or not the HIV/AIDS epidemic would affect the economy. A Kenyan analysis indicated that the HIV/AIDS epidemic would cause a significant impact, which predictions that HIV/AIDS would leave the Kenyan economy one sixth smaller than it would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS.  [12]  A South African study suggest that by the 2010, the level of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) could be lower than 17 percent due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic while the level of per capita GDP could be lower than 7 percent. About half the decline is due to an increase in the amount government is spending on health care to do with HIV/AIDS and one third is due to the lower productivity levels.  [13]   Conclusion South African mining companies have the potential to have a great competitive advantage against all the other companies around the world. Businesses need to protect the workers that have not been infected by HIV and educate their workforce to ensure the number of HIV positive people does not increase much more. For the ones that have been infected the mining companies need to use the services they have on them and that they support the workers through this difficult time. The companies need to ensure that the impact of this is as less as possible. As we have seen HIV mainly affects those that are at the prime working age, this means that the companies are greatly affected by this especially when skilled workers are needed or workers undergo an intensive training process. Therefore the loss of one of the workers can cause a business to lose some of its competitive edge. The increase in the HIV epidemic has lead companies to experience a loss in their profitability. This is due to an increase in their expenditures, such as sick leave, health care, funeral benefits, recruiting and training new employee and even providing anti retroviral therapy. Also their revenues have declined due to a decrease in efficiency and productivity as workers become ill and weak. Due to mining being such a demanding job, this has been one of the main problems they have experienced. There have also been more indirect ways in which the mining industry has been affected, such as de-motivation, poor work relationships. This great HIV epidemic may be slowly down investors wanting to invest new money into the mining industry. Also HIV/AIDS is said to be slowly down economic growth with is also turning investors away and limiting the number of people willing to invest in South Africa. Overall, with still more than half the population not being affected by HIV, there is still a chance that we can turn this situation around and lessen the impact of this epidemic to the mining industry and to our country. With continuing education, handing out condoms mining companies can hopefully limit the spread of HIV or even reduce it. If they keep addressing the issue and commit to the cause, we can limit the affects of HIV/AIDS to the mining industry.

Agendas and Instability in American Politics Essay

In this book, authors Baumgartner and Jones present an analysis of the nature of the policymaking process and national agenda setting. The authors’ methodology in this study was to conduct an empirical study examining national policy issues over time and then highlight any notable patterns. In the book, the authors develop a political model to account of long periods of stability in policies where entrenched interests are evident, but also times where policy change happens relatively quickly and seems to favor new avenues of influence. The authors utilize a model of evolution known as â€Å"punctuated equilibrium,† which was originally developed by paleontologists, to describe the dynamics and patterns of policy change. This process of punctuated equilibrium asserts that the political system â€Å"displays considerable stability with regard to the manner in which it processes issues, but the stability is punctuated with periods of volatile change† (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 4). This change can be represented by an S-curve or a logistic growth curve illustrating a slow policy adoption at first, then a rapid push an enthusiastic support for it, then after it has saturated the national scene the process starts again. The authors go on to explore public policies in nuclear power, smoking, drug abuse, auto safety, etc. then describe them according to the punctuated equilibrium model. Baumgartner and James make the argument that institutions reproduce a particular policy agenda and therefore act to lengthen the life of some policies and in some cases can even create a monopoly on that agenda. Once the monopoly on the agenda is set, changes to the general policy will tend to happen incrementally (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 5). Two mainstays of instituting a policy monopoly are 1) a definable institutional structure that limits access to the policy process and 2) a powerful supporting idea associated with the institution. The imagery and rhetoric associated with a particular policy is usually produced and controlled by an institutional sponsor and have far reaching effects on the population. The authors exclaim: These buttressing policy ideas are generally connected to core political values which can be communicated directly and simply through image and rhetoric. The best are such things as progress, participation, patriotism, independence from foreign domination, fairness, economic growth—things no one taken seriously in the political system can contest. If a group can convince others that their activities serve such lofty goals, then it may be able to create a policy monopoly (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 7). This policy monopoly is not permanent and can undergo incremental adjustments and tweaks as the public perception of that policy begins to shift due to counter-mobilization and a decrease in public apathy. New views and a re-defining of the monopolistic policies inevitably lead to substantial change in the agenda; and the authors argue that when this ultimate change takes place it is quick and punctuated. Policy images are the primary mechanism interest groups and institutions use to manipulate support for or against a particular policy. The authors describe policy images as â€Å"a mixture of empirical information and emotive appeals (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 26). The policy images used at one venue may be changed for another depending on the aims of the group presenting the policy. A good example Baumgartner & Jones use to illustrate the process of shifting policy image is the nuclear power debate and how it changed from â€Å"solidly positive to overwhelmingly negative† (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 61). Next, the authors tackle the institutional influences in policymaking. Diverse interest groups have been on the rise since the 1960’s, and the competing interests all vie for support (public & private) for their respective causes. Much that support depends upon how well the interest groups are mobilized. Congress plays an integral role in providing access to and shaping policy agendas as they receive requests and pressures from various interest groups. Two forces that structure changes in congressional behavior are: 1) shifting jurisdictional boundaries and 2) member activity in response to perceived benefits from supporting a particular policy (Baumgartner & Jones 1993: 195). In summation, the authors illustrate how policy change and agenda setting in US politics is constructed by the primary factors of institutionalized interests and corresponding views or images of a purported policy. Other factors such as counter-mobilization, legislative support, and federalism influence this process, but overall it follows the punctuated equilibrium model of a steady maintenance of accepted policies and values until a re-defining of the issues becomes a popularized and mobilized movement.

Rationality, Educated Opinion and Peace Essay

Abstract: This paper addresses the relevance of interwar thought to the building of peace through examining the ideas of three important writers of the period: Edward Hallett Carr, Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern. The role of public opinion was under much query in the politics of the period they wrote in, and crucial to this issue are the questions as to whether the public mind is rational and capable of reason. These writers are concerned with the influence of public opinion and believe that through educating the public mind, the possibility of peace can be increased. Drawing from their ideas, this paper thus postulates that peace is a product of rationality and there is possibility of progress through education. The birth of international relations as a separate discipline was founded against the context of the interwar years, which brought about important consequences for the subsequent development of the interwar years. The tensions prior to and the subsequent devastation of the Great War forced intellectuals of the early twentieth century to seek explanations for the causes of war and to postulate measures by which another catastrophe could be prevented. The general psyche of the people exerted an influence on the direction of international studies. As David Long points out, the academic study of international affairs during this period of time possessed â€Å"a normative though not necessarily utopian interest in the avoidance of war†1. Such a trend is manifested in the trust deed of the Wilson Chair of International Politics (one of the first few schools of the discipline), which states that international politics is the â€Å"political science in its application to international relations with special reference to the best means of promoting peace between nations.†2 Woodrow Wilson, being a leading statesman at the time, presents one of the possible avenues for peace. He consciously and deliberately tied issues of foreign policy to domestic politics, giving rise to what will come to be known as the â€Å"democratic peace thesis†. Wilson advocates the belief that â€Å"popular participation, public life and opportunity for all [will be] the guarantee of peace†. Wilson believed that diplomacy and foreign policy must be taken with regard to public opinion and the public being rational would prefer peace to war.3 The crucial premise here is that public opinion matters in a democratic political system. The assumption further made is that the political leaders are sensitive to public opinion and will be susceptible to their demands. The issue of public opinion gives rise to another set of issues, and one of the foremost in this period, is the skepticism that the basic assumption of a rational public rejecting war is true. Is the public rational? Is war a rational choice? The political definition of rationality is the ability of the public to discern the options open to them, and to adopt the best option to achieve their prioritized goals. The Great War cast doubts as to whether public is necessarily aware of what their options and goals are, much less their ability to choose the best option to fit their preferred purpose. As historian A. J. P. Taylor argues that the intellectual backlash against the dehumanizing war made the interwar years an â€Å"age of intellectual and artistic activity†, where intellectuals from various fields of study question the power of man to reason.4 The devastation of war brings queries, particularly from the idealists, as to whether war can be a rational choice. Even if the assumption holds true, there is still the question as to whether public opinion has any weight on policy formulation. Given this particular context, this paper questions the foundations of Wilsonian politics. This paper will thus postulate on the influence of public opinion and the impact of rationality on the maintenance of peace by drawing from the ideas of three important writers of this period: Edward Hallett Carr, Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern. This paper will first introduce the positions of all three writers. It will then examine the fundamental assumption shared by all three writers with respect to public opinion, before expounding on their arguments on the rationality of the public and why the issue matters. The paper will then look into the possibilities of peace, and how the three concur on the issue of education. Due to source constraints, this paper will draw on secondary references to the works of the three writers, where the primary sources are not available. Carr, Angell and Zimmern Peter Wilson in Thinkers of the Twenty Years’ Crisis introduces Carr’s book as â€Å"a work which not only set the tone for subsequent discussion of inter-war thought, but also substantially shaped postwar attitudes towards it.†5 The premise for The Twenty Years’ Crisis is the critique of inter-war idealism, which Carr terms ‘utopian’6. Carr dismisses the ‘utopians’ as being unable to understand political reality and sets up a dichotomy that supposes â€Å"utopia: reality= free will: determinism= theory: practice= morality: power =universal: relative= intellectual: bureaucrat= Left: Right† 7 The dichotomy presented by Carr undermines interwar idealism, and leads, in part, to the rejection of the practical value of these theories. This dichotomy shapes subsequent debate and is consequentially identified as the polarity of realism and idealism, which will dominate international studies for the next few decades. In order to posit queries of the dichotomy, it is first necessary to expound on the assumptions that are conventionally made of either school. Brian C. Schmidt summarises the assumptions of idealism as follows : a pervasive faith in reason and rationalism, a belief in the infallibility of public opinion, the view that war was irrational, that the best way to end conflict was through education, international law, and world government, and, finally, a belief that the essential harmony of interests existed, which translated into the international doctrine of â€Å"war-does-not-pay8. Superficially, both Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern adopt such assumptions in their writings. Significantly, both Angell and Zimmern share the same devotion to one key tenet: the possibility of progress through educating public opinion and conditioning human behaviour. Their devotion to the tenet became stronger later into their careers, especially after the Second World War. The realist school of thought as represented by Carr, refutes the idealist assumptions. In particular, the realists argue that the concept of ‘power’ is central to international affairs. Carr adopts Thomas Hobbes’ argument on human nature and advances the argument that the state as a rational actor will choose to maximize its capacity for power in order to secure its survival. He argues that public opinion, even when informed, is not necessarily pacifist and that thought can be mould by political purposes. Through defining his position by rejecting and critiquing the idealists assumptions, Carr’s realist position is thus seen as the diametric opposite of the idealists. It is then necessary to redress both the ideas of Carr and the much-maligned interwar idealists, among whom are Zimmern and Angell. The choice of juxtaposing Angell and Zimmern with Carr in this paper is conscious. Both Zimmern and Angell are among the few ‘utopians’ whom Carr explicitly criticizes in The Twenty Years’ Crisis. Andreas Osiander points out that Zimmern is â€Å"still widely regarded as what Oslon and Groom have called the ‘consummate’ idealist†9, and is thus identifiable with the idealist school of thought. Yet Zimmern, as Paul Rich and Peter Wilson suggest, is considerably less adverse to Carr’s ideas than his idealist colleagues.10 Angell, on the other hand, is one of the fiercest adversaries to The Twenty Years’ Crisis, but J. D. Miller raises the argument that â€Å"Angell should†¦ be regarded less as an idealist than a far sighted realist† because of his â€Å"acute awareness† of the issues o f political reality11. The interplay of their ideas then calls to question the validity of a clear dichotomy. In essence then, this paper seek to question if the positions of these writers on the assumptions raised by Schmidt are as concrete as they appear to be. In other words, this paper examines the complexities of Carr, Angell and Zimmern’s ideas on the applicability of public opinion, rationality and possibilities of peace. On closer examination, this paper argues that despite the differences, the three share a fundamental similarity: the belief in progress. The dichotomy between the realists and idealists is permeable, and in their postulation of the long term, the arguments of Carr, Angell and Zimmern coincide. Public Opinion First and foremost, the underlying assumption that Carr, Angell and Zimmern adopt is that public opinion matters, even though their understanding of public opinion differs. Zimmern argues that â€Å"[p]ublic opinion is the lifeblood of a civilized community† but unfortunately, the majority of the peoples is guided by â€Å"caprice of ignorance, passion or greed, and the other devils if unreason.†12 The title of Carr’s inaugural speech at the University College of Wales, â€Å"Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace† says much. Carr argues that public opinion can exert tremendous influence over a foreign policy issue that it feels sufficiently strongly about, using the case of the public rejection of the Hoare-Laval plan to build his case. He states that, â€Å"No nation, and least of all a democracy, can wage war unless it has the support of an overwhelming majority of its people†13. The implication of such a statement in light of guarding the peace is that insofar as the public is not in favour of war, a state and particularly a democratic state will not and cannot adopt war as a policy instrument. Angell’s Nobel Lecture, â€Å"Peace and the Public Mind†, adopts the same position, except that he argues public opinion, being misinformed and â€Å"disastrously erroneous† can lead to war. 14 Interestingly both Angell and Carr argue that public opinion is easily manipulated. Carr devotes a section to â€Å"Power over opinion† in The Twenty Years’ Crisis, suggesting that the greater proportion of public becoming conscious or involved in politics relates to the importance that the ruling elite place on propaganda as an instrument of power. The influence of propaganda rests on the premise he sets earlier in the book that the crucial contribution of realism is the idea that thought is relative to purpose. 15 For instance, nationalism, as a form of ideology, could be seen as a means by which the public can be persuaded to go to war. Similarly, Angell contends that a small militant minority is capable of appealing to the majority towards a policy that may not be in the majority’s best interests.16 Rationality Having established that public opinion has a role to play, we then move on to the crucial questions: is the public rational, and is war a rational choice? On both issues, there are significant differences between Carr and the idealists, arising from the difference in the way they interpret and infer from past and current events. Reason and rationality give rise to different outcomes for Carr and the idealists. An important observation is that Carr places more faith in reason and rationality than do the others, contrary to our earlier presupposition that it is the idealists who have a â€Å"pervasive faith in reason and rationalism.† A proper definition of what is meant by rational behaviour has yet to be provided as a premise for argument. To proceed, we adopt James Mill’s argument for the rational public opinion quoted in Carr as a guide to what rational behaviour entails: Every man possessed of reason is accustomed to weigh evidence and to be guided and determined by its preponderance. When various conclusions are, with their evidence presented with equal care and with equal skill, there is a moral certainty, though some few maybe misguided, that greatest number will judge right, and the greatest force of evidence, whatever it is, will produce the greatest impression. 17 Whereas Carr believes that the public, being self-interested, is capable of defining their goals and seeking the best possible means to achieve toward that end, he rejects Mills’ definition of rational behaviour. Mills’ definition is in turn based on the ideas espoused by Jeremy Betham who assumes that the ideal option is the â€Å"greatest good to the greatest number†. Carr argues that public opinion comes from the masses, who are for large part, neither enlightened nor educated and thus â€Å"the greatest number† need not necessarily â€Å"judge right†. He argues that Betham and Mills’ assumption that self-interest can be sacrificed for the sake of â€Å"the greatest good† to the collective is based on â€Å"some kind of intuition of what is right and cannot be demonstrated by rational argument.†18 Carr suggests, instead, that rational necessarily demands a consciousness and the ability to adjust to the balance of power existing in international affairs, which serves as a constraint on the options available. The discerning public thus does not only take into account what is right, but also what is most practical in catering to self-interest. Carr then adopts an argument that is parallel to Thomas Hobbes’. Hobbes, in Leviathan, states the fundamental law of nature as: it is a precept, or general rule of reason that every man, ought to endeavour peace, as far as he has hope of obtaining it; and when he cannot obtain it, that he may seek, and use all helps, and advantages of war Carr comments, to the same effect, that although war is undesirable, it is not possible to impose an absolute judgement that war is â€Å"always and unconditionally wrong.† The implication of Hobbes and Carr’s argument is that the public being rational favours peace. However, when the public believes that they have more to gain from war, or more to lose from not going to war, war becomes a rational and logical solution. Historically, Carr’s argument seems to find sufficient basis in the outbreak of World War I. One of the reasons contributing to the war was the increase in bellicosity, arising from rationalization of cost and benefit or cooperation and non-cooperation. Prior to the Great War, the perceived cost of non-cooperation19 had decreased. The perception was influenced by beliefs that any war would be short, a consequence of â€Å"a highly exaggerated faith in the efficacy of offensive military strategies and tactics†20 and by the system of alliances. The perception was further coloured by nationalism. Secondly the perceived gains of non-cooperation had increased. The general belief was that expansionism and offensive foreign policy was perceived to be too high, due to the general suspicion of the intentions of the other states. Given these perceptions then prevalent, European states saw it to their advantage to go to war, and in fact to initiate the war so as to reap the greate st advantage of the ground. This international game theory exemplifies in part the rational process that Carr espoused. The idealists depart greatly from Carr. Angell and Zimmern accept that Mills’ definition is greatly desired but finds it incongruent with political reality. Reus-Smit, in his essay â€Å"The Strange Death of Liberal Theory†, argues that the conflict between morality and political reality is seen by Angell as a divide between â€Å"reason and unreason†. He argues that, â€Å"If the former prevailed, there was some hope of a reconciliation between morality, defined as the well-being of all and reality, which in [Angell’s] favoured area was the incompatibility of warfare and such well-being.21† However, within the historical context, Angell believes that ‘unreason’ prevailed. Angell believes that the public mind is often irrational, because it is too easily persuaded; it does not possess sufficient information, nor the ability to process vast amounts of information when it is available and it lacks the skill to seek evidence for the variou s conclusions, as Mill points out, i.e., it cannot â€Å"see the likely results of actions.† 22 The public mind cannot compute cost-benefit-analysis, which is central to rationalization. Angell accounts for this irrationality of the public mind, stating that it arises from the â€Å"failure to apply to our international relationships knowledge which is of practically universal possession†23 In Angell’s opinion then, it is not for the lack of intellectual capacity on the part of the public that lead to the irrational behaviour, but the inability to apply knowledge. Resting on his idea of the irrational public, Angell expounds on the war and why the public’s choice to go to war is actually irrational. In his aptly named book, The Great Illusion, he puts forth a convincing argument on the futility of war on grounds of rationality and economic considerations. Angell argues that the perceived benefits of war under modern circumstances, are reduced, as victors can no longer expect to benefit as much from the spoils of war. The change is largely because goods and spoils are no longer portable (such as gold, silver, slaves, precious stones) as they had before. Goods and services are non-physical such as currency, shares, and fixed assets, and are thus not transferable wealth. As such, if states act purely in their self-interest, given the expectation not to gain from war, states would be unlikely to pursue war.24 Angell considers this line of reasoning to be simplistic and easily applicable to the conduct of international relations. Yet as the advent of World War I proves, the public is incapable of applying such rationale to political practice. Angell argues that the pervading reasons behind war, then, are irrational. Not only does war not serve to the benefit of the state concerned, better alternatives of action could be sought such as building economic relations, social interaction. Such connections can be used in persuading, as opposed to coercing, other states into behaving in the manner that is beneficial to the state concerned. Thus the argument adopted is that war is irrational, i.e. not the best-laid option, and man being irrational and susceptible to external influences, chooses to use war as a policy instrument. Andreas Osiander points out that â€Å"unlike what Carr implies, Zimmern, like Angell, was very far from seeing public opinion as necessarily a force for peace.25† Like Angell, he believes that the conflicts in the international arena, giving rise to war are resultant of intellectual, and not political failure.26 However, if Carr is to be believed, Zimmern can, in fact, be seen as being more extreme than Angell. Carr states in The Twenty Years Crisis that Zimmern is inclined towards the hypothesis that â€Å"If mankind in its international relations has signally failed to achieve the rational good, it must †¦ have been too stupid to understand that good.† Carr’s statement is not altogether justified. Although Zimmern does point out that the impediment to overcoming the obstacle towards peace is that man â€Å"are beings of conservative temper and limited intelligence27†, what he implies is that man is reluctant to adjust to present realities brought b y modernity. As a result of the inherent resistance towards change, man’s mental capacity does not adapt to the fact that previous ways of managing international relations are no longer applicable. Consequentially, public opinion cannot be trusted to be rational. Zimmern subscribes to John Stuart Mill’s argument of the â€Å"tyranny of the majority†. He argues that the ruling elite, that is, the politicians in positions of power tend to be capable of rationalization. However this intellectual minority in government is consumed by the irrational public: â€Å"for statesmen, however wise and far sighted, are limited in their policies by the public opinion and parliaments to which they are responsible.28† Angell concurs on this issue. J. D. Miller, drawing from Angell’s comments, argues that Angell too â€Å"feared the impact upon politicians of an unreasoning crowd mind, and doubted the capacity of politicians to resist it†. Both Angell and Zimmern, then, prefer that the intellectual minority be given the ability and power to lead the rest of the populace, so as to govern rational foreign policies. In this regard, Carr again differs. Whereas Carr does agree that the intellectual minority has a role to play in leading public opinion,29 he believes that the intellectual minority is however, sadly, out of touch with reality. He argues his case by drawing on the difference between intellectuals’ perceptions of the League of Nations with those of the man on the street. The intellectuals, who tend to be idealists by his definition, strive to secure and maintain peace via means of treaties, covenants and legal codifications. The general public, however, is more concerned with the practice of international affairs (as opposed to the theory.) Going by Carr’s understanding of rational behaviour to be taking into account what is right and also what is most practical in application, the intellectual mi nority is in practice less rational than the public. Change and the possibility of progress As it is, there seems to be a great divide between Carr and his two contemporaries with regards to whether man is rational. However, central to their arguments is the shared belief that history is a directional process, that is, there is the idea of constant change. Carr argues that war occurs because of the conservative reluctance to allow change to the status quo and the way to peace is to provide means of peaceful change.30 Angell and Zimmern suggest that war occurs because man has yet to come to terms with change, and that the mentality and psyche of the populace has not kept in line with international developments. As Zimmern states, â€Å"the statesmen and the peoples have not adjusted their minds to the new realities†31. The central concern with the issue of change harkens to a broader issue on which the three writers concur: the possibility of progress. The interwar context is one of pessimism. The first decade had been one of recovery and rehabilitation from the shock of the Great War and the second decade of mounting tensions and escalation to an even more disastrous war. The context in which these writers write in, therefore, begets the question of whether man can move away from destruction of war, and by what means. The three writers agree that the current situation calls for change, as present movements and measures to maintain peace are insufficient and inadequate, and are reasonably optimistic that such change can be effected. Carr notes even in 1936 that, â€Å"the cause of peace has made tremendous stride during the past fifteen years and shows his preference towards progressive history, arguing that â€Å"a sense of change as a progressive factor in history, and belief in reason as our guide for the understanding of its complexities† are crucial to the current world. Angell is of the same mind when he questions the unchangeability of human nature and argues that just as cannibalism and slavery can be systematically reduced in our society, so too can the warlike nature of man and states32. Zimmern, even when decrying the decline of international standards (which he defined as rules of behaviour) at a meeting at Chatham House in 1937 argues that the process of change allowing for pea ceful coexistence was already taking place.33 The ultimate aim of change is the maintenance of peace, which is assumed to be the preferred good, through the avoidance of war. The question that is then posited is, by what means? Carr, Angell and Zimmern propose different measures but the one pertinent to the prior argument on public opinion and rationality is their faith in education. Due to their fundamental belief that public opinion matters, it is logical to argue that if the public mind, as Angell would call it, could be trained and conditioned to favour ‘peaceful change’, then the chances of states going to war would be minimized. Angell quotes in his The Great Illusion that â€Å"Not the facts, but men’s opinions about the facts is what matters†, and making a parallel with the abolishment of witch hunts, he comments that â€Å"just as in the matter of burning witches a change of behaviour was the outcome of a change of opinion†¦ in a same way a change in the political conduct of can only com e about as a result of a change of thought†34. The way to peace then is to shape man’s perceptions about war. Given this understanding, the most basic and possibly most efficient way of bringing about this conditioned public is through education. However in his address given to Chatham House in 1931, Angell claims that the current education system does not adequately prepare the individual to make intelligent and informed inferences from the facts presented to him. He believes that the reason behind this lack in the system is that education tends to follow a tradition whereby an older generation influences and instruct the younger through a process of socialization.35 Unfortunately this tradition means that values and ideas that are taught are often unable to catch up with present realities. The educational system had also focused on provision of information, without equipping the individual with means to discern the motivations, the causation analysis, the implications et cetera behind the piece of information. According to him, â€Å"We have thought too much of the facts and too little of their meaning.† 36 Thus the socialization/education of an individual does not adequately provide him with the skill to make rational choices. Given his premise that war is irrational under any circumstances lest in defence and a rational public will therefore reject war, the skill deficiency means that man may choose to go to war due to their lack of understanding, unless the educational system can be changed. Beyond the suggestion that education shifts its focus from its informational purpose towards equipping successive generations with the skill to possess information, Angell does not however provide for how education can be otherwise structured. Zimmern elaborates on his ideal educational system in his book Learning and Leadership, which is not only designed to impart the skill of discerning information but also specifically equipped to teach students about international life. Particularly, he believes that practical experience through interaction with people from other nations will allow students to imbibe the habit of cooperation and harmonious living37. Zimmern believes that once people are given more exposure to the international arena, they will be able to understand foreigners and foreign influences better and become more acutely aware of the idea of universal brotherhood. This basic premise being established, man will be more able to understand the actions of others, less inclined to take preemptive action and to go to war. The assumption of such an argument is that people are less inclined to advocate war against a party that they share an understanding with. Education is thus seen as an instrument which can build commonality among peoples, as well as a means by which the public can be trained to be rational. In The Twenty Years’ Crisis, Carr argues for the application of reason to understanding current situations and political reality; in his later work What is History he extends the role of reason to the capacity to reform: The primary function of reason, as applied to man in society, is no longer merely to investigate, but to transform; and this heightened consciousness of the power of men to improve the management of his social, economic and political affairs by the application of rational processes seems to me one of the major aspects of the twentieth century. 38 The core assumptions here are that reason leads to progress and progress is necessarily an improvement. Remembering the key concern of the study of international relations in the interwar period, a foremost improvement of the human condition is the eradication of war. As do Angell and Zimmern, Carr believes that education was to be the tool by which such improvement can come about. However, unlike Zimmern and Angell who believe that the public has to be thought how to make rational choices in the first place, Carr believes that education can be used to shape the way the public thinks about their choices. Carr notes then that education policy must be shaped: Educators at all levels are nowadays more and more consciously concerned to make their contribution to the shaping of society in a particular mould, and to inculcate in the rising generation the attitudes, loyalties and opinions appropriate to that type of society: educational policy is an integral part of any rationally planned social policy.39 It is then assumed, that rationally, a society will be prefer not to resort to war in a conflict of interest, and a means by which this can be ensured is to design an educational system which, in the context of the interwar years, should imbue in them the moral norm that ‘peaceful change’ is the preferred means of achieving policy objectives. To put it more plainly, Carr’s ideal is using education to persuade man against the doctrine of power, providing a basis whereby a compromise between morality and power can be reached and peaceful change achieved. In his contention that thought is relative to purpose, Carr postulates that mass opinion can directed and in fact ‘mass-produced’ via ‘universal popular education’. It is imperative to note that by popular education, Carr has included the mass media.( Carr does not, however differentiate between education and propaganda in The Twenty Years’ Crisis though in What is History, he associates education with rationality and the â€Å"growing consciousness from below as well as from above of the role which reason can play†40). The application of reason and rationality therefore means that education can be used to persuade mankind against war. Instead of making an argument that war is irrational, educators can influence the public into making a conscious choice not to use war as a policy instrument. As Carr states, â€Å"I regard as of immense importance and promise the gradual extension of the area of the world’s surface within which war has been effectively been placed under the ban,† such that war is actually unthinkable41. What becomes interesting is how closely Carr mirrors the ‘utopians’ he derides. Peter Wilson, in his attempt to understand what Carr means by ‘utopian’, lists the various characteristics that Carr associates with the term. According to his analysis, all of these characteristics are † ‘progressive ideas’; and it might be therefore be concluded that the core characteristic of interwar idealism is belief in conscious, progressive change†. On this basis, Carr does not seem to be any much different, which recalls Reus-Smit’s observation quoted earlier in this paper that Carr is himself not a consummate realist. It is also possible to put forth an argument that Carr’s argument against utopianism was never meant to be an outright and unconditional rejection of the interwar theories. Conclusion Whether or not these three writers think the public mind is rational depends largely on whether they believe war can be a rational choice, and yet regardless of their perspectives on these two issues, they believe that progress towards avoidance of war can be ensured through changing human behaviour. Education policies thus become important, as they can shape the perceptions of the public and thus affect their choices, which is in turn reflected in the chosen foreign policy. However there is a point to note based on this argument set. All three writers are writing within a democratic framework and tradition, where by definition, requires that public opinion matters. Yet, public opinion is less likely to make an impact in an authoritarian state, and even in democratic states, there is the consideration of public apathy, the leaders gambling and taking risks by not going according to public opinion, et cetera. These complications bring us back to the consideration of Wilsonian politics. Woodrow Wilson professes that his aim is to make the world safe for democracy, and that democracy will bring peace. His tendency has been to look at the building and maintenance of peace from a top down approach, where the political structure and political ideological apparatus are enforced. In other words, he looks to providing a mechanism which will allow the rational public to prevent the tendencies of the militant minority from dragging the state to war. However, from the ideas of Carr, Angell and Zimmern, such a mechanism would not function effectively against war unless the public mind can be first conditioned through a fitting educational system emphasizing co-operation and peace. 1 David Long, â€Å"Conclusion: Interwar idealism, liberal internationalism and contemporary international theory†. Thinkers of the Twenty Years’ Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. p. 303, pp. 306-307. 2 Quoted in E. H. Carr’s inaugural speech in the University College of Wales. â€Å"Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace† International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1931-1939). Vol. 15. No. 6. (Nov- Dec 1936), p. 846. 3 Mortimer Chambers, et al. The Western Experience Vol C: The Modern Era. pp. 892-893 4 A. J. P. Taylor, From Sarajevo to Potsdam. London: Thames & Hudson: 1966 pp. 103-106 5 Peter Wilson. â€Å"Introduction: The Twenty Years’ Crisis and the Category of ‘Idealism’ in International Relations†. David Long & Peter Wilson. (ed.) Thinkers of the Twenty Years’ Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 1995. p.1 6 Carr’s term ‘utopians’ is generally taken to refer to the idealists, though he does not clearly define who he considers to be utopians. 7 Wilson, â€Å"Introduction†, p. 12. Wilson adapted the equation from Hedley Bull, â€Å"The Twenty Crisis Thirty Years On†, International Journal, Issue 24, Vol. 4 (1969), p. 627-8. E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years’ Crisis: 1919-1939. New York: Harper: (1946) 1964. pp. 11-21. 8 Brian C. Schmidt. â€Å"Lessons from the Past: reassessing the Interwar Disciplinary History of International Relations†. International Studies Quarterly (1998) 42. p 452 9 Andreas Osiander, â€Å"Rereading Early Twentieth Century IR theory: Idealism Revisited†, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 3 (Sep.,1998). p. 417 10 Paul Rich, â€Å"Alfred Zimmern’s Catious Idealism: the League of Nations, International Education, and the Commonwealth†. Thinkers of the Twenty Years’ Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. p.88; Peter Wilson, â€Å"Carr and his Early Crtics: responses to the Twenty Years’ Crisis†. Michael Cox (ed). E. H. Carr: A critical appraisal. New York: Palgrave: 2000. p. 167. 11 J. D. Miller. â€Å"Norman Angell and Rationality in International Relations†. Thinkers of the Twenty Years’ Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. pp. 116, 119. 12 Alfred Zimmern, Learning and Leadership: a study of the needs and possibilities of international intellectual co-operation. London: Oxford University Press: 1928. p. 10; p. 82. 13 Carr, â€Å"Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace† pp. 857-858. 14 Norman Angell, Peace and the Public Mind. June 12, 1935. http://www.nobel.se/cgi-bin/print. March 24, 2004. 15 E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years’ Crisis. pp. 132-133; pp. 67-75 16 Norman Angell Peace and the Public Mind. para. 19 17 quoted in E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis. p 24. 18 Ibid. p. 26; p. 41 19 The line of reasoning here is tied to the idea of an international game theory, which due to practical constraints cannot be covered here. The argument is made in line with Robert Jervis theory on international behaviour in his â€Å"Cooperation Under Security Dilemma† World Politics. Vol. 30, No. 2 (Jan, 1978), pp.167-214. 20 Stephen van Evera, â€Å"Why co-operation failed in 1914†. World Politics, Vol. 38. No. 1 (Oct, 1985). p. 81 21 Christian Reus-Smit, â€Å"The Strange Death of Liberal International Theory†. European Journal of International Law. Vol. 12. No. 3. pp. 578-9. 22 J. D. Miller. Norman Angell and the Futility of War: Peace and the public mind. London: Macmillian: 1986. pp/ 124-125. 23 Norman Angell. Peace and the Public mind. para. 17 24 Norman Angell. Europe’s Optical Illusion. London: Simpkin, Marshall, Hamilton, Kent , 1909(?)24-40; The Great Illusion:A study of the relation of military power to national advantage. London: William Heinemann 1913. pp. 26-40. 25 Andreas Osiander, â€Å"Rereading Early Twentieth Century IR theory† p. 417 26 Alfred Zimmern, Learning and Leadership. p. 11. 27 Alfred Zimmern, â€Å"The Problem with Collective Security† (ed) Q. Wright. Neutrality and Collective Security. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 1936. p. 8. 28 Ibid. 29 E. H. Carr, â€Å"Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace†. p. 854. 30 E. H. Carr. The Twenty Years Crisis. pp. 208-223 31 Alfred Zimmern Learning and Leadership. p. 22 32 Norman Angell, The Great Illusion. 1913. pp. 200-221. 33 Alfred Zimmern, â€Å"The Decline of International Standards†International Affiars (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1931-1939). Vol 17. No. 1 (Jan.-Feb. 1938), p. 21. 34 Norman Angell, The Great Illusion. P. 327 35 Norman Angell, â€Å"Popular Education and International Affairs† International Affairs (Royal Institute of International affairs 1931-1939) Vol. 11, No. 3 (May 1932), p. 323 36 Ibid, p 335-338, 338 37 Alfred Zimmern Learning and Leadership. p. 26-60 38 E. H. Carr. What is History? New York , St. Martin’s Press , 1961 p 190 39 Ibid. 40 Ibid p. 195. Propaganda is associated with the emotive and not with reason. 41 E. H. Carr. â€Å"Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace†. p. 861.

The Cause For Increasing Fire Activity Is Climate Change

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